The debate around green hydrogen cost often focuses on achieving a €2/kg benchmark, but this may not be necessary for competitiveness in many industrial applications.
With grey hydrogen costs fluctuating between €2/kg and €4/kg due to natural gas price volatility, green hydrogen in the €3–4/kg range could already be viable when carbon pricing and energy security considerations are included.
The race to reduce green hydrogen cost has largely centred on achieving a €2/kg benchmark. However, analysis of the Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) suggests that electricity prices and system integration may matter more than electrolyser costs alone.
If renewable electricity can be secured at competitive prices, green hydrogen production costs in the €3–4/kg range may already compete with fossil-based hydrogen in many markets.
As natural gas prices drive volatility in grey hydrogen costs, the future competitiveness of hydrogen may depend less on achieving the lowest possible price and more on building efficient, integrated energy systems.
Source: Carlos Bernuy-Lopez (LinkedIn)
