The picture below taken from the very recent Clean Hydrogen Monitor 2024 made by Hydrogen Europe tells us that current grey hydrogen costs are around that value.
One could make a post about talking if this cost will stay there studying fossil gas evolution but I would let this to the fossil gas experts. However, I would like to give few directions to obtain 3 €/kg of Renewable Hydrogen.
1) First of all and as I point out in one of my last week posts, be careful what you consider Renewable Hydrogen as cost-competitive blue hydrogen does not seem to qualify due to the high emissions of fossil gas.
2) Renewable Hydrogen via water electrolysis does seem to do the job in terms of emissions so we need to see what makes to produce this hydrogen at 3 €/kg.
3) Looking at our LCOH models, we can obtain it with capacity factors of 70 %, electricity prices at 40 €/MWh, CAPEX at 1000 €/kW and OPEX at 40 kWh/kg. Same conditions but with 54 kWh/kg need electricity prices about 30 €/MWh.
Therefore, the way forward is not other that to produce hydrogen in those places where renewable electricity is very cheap using as much efficient electrolysis technologies as possible and to use it for the sectors where we can have the highest demand.
This may sound repetitive but we need to have this 3 points clear to be able to move forward.
Source: Carlos Bernuy Lopez
