Electrification of industries and hydrogen
Last week it came to my feed a surprising graph that suggested that 93 % of the energy consumed by industry in the EU could be electrified by 2035. Awesome! However, is this correct? Not really.
Reading carefully to the source shown on the previous graph, one see that 93 % of process heating in the EU can be electrified. Process heating accounts for 47 % of industrial energy demand as shown in the graph below. What about the rest then, i.e. feedstocks, mechanical energy and lighting and space heating?
In the very interesting report cited in the previous graph, Fleiter et al. two main energy carriers were considered to decarbonise industry: electricity and hydrogen. The reports describes 3 models to decarbonise the about 4 250 TWh of energy used by industry in Europe, including UK (the previous does not include UK):
a. Elec+. Focus on electrification including process heating that is technically mature Hydrogen left for feedstock and little for process heating (steel and non-metallic industry)
b. H2+. Focus on hydrogen for feedstocks and some more process heating but not all.
c. Elec+_VC. Feedstocks (iron sponge, ammonia and ethylene (plus other HVCs) are mainly imported.
If we look at the needs of hydrogen by 2050 in the graph below, the three models reach significant difference in hydrogen demand but still important: 1 785 TWh (54 million tonnes of H2) in the H2+ scenario, 1 343 TWh (40 million tonnes of H2) in the Elec+ scenario and 415 TWh (12 million tonnes of H2) in Elec+_VC sensitivity analysis by 2050.
Remember, we currently consume 9 million tonnes of H2 in Europe, +95% fossil.
Finally, the total amount of energy demand for each model by 2050 will be similar for H2+ and Elec+, about 4 000 TWh, but significant lower for Elec+_VC, about 2750 TWh. In this study, about 40, 48 and 65 % of total energy demand in industry can be electrified for the Elec+, H2+ and Elec+_VC models respectively.
In conclusion, large amounts of hydrogen are still needed to decarbonise the European industry and let’s be careful about our data dissemination not to confuse anyone.
Source: Carlos Bernuy-Lopez
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